Baker Jensen Investment Advisors

BJIA Update
November 2008

Volume 13, Issue 9

Contents

The Economy in November
by Guy Baker

When times are tough, turn to the seasoned pros for advice
Conventional advice may be wrong
Our brains are not designed for good investment decisions
Optimistic advisers, stock losers, and more
Stock market has done better under Democratic presidents


Conventional advice may be wrong

Peak walker

A lot of traditional financial planning advice is just plain wrong and can hurt your chances of retiring successfully, says Laurence J. Kotlikoff, economics professor at Boston University.
Kotlikoff, who has studied and written widely on personal finance, says American workers sometimes should do exactly the opposite of the traditional advice.

He has written a book of unconventional advice, “Spend ‘til The End” (Simon & Schuster, 2008) to help workers with retirement planning.

Delay Social Security

For instance, many believe it is better to take Social Security early and preserve tax-sheltered 401k and IRA accounts until later in retirement.

But in a financial planning conference last month in Boston Kotlikoff argued that retirees should use retirement accounts to supplement their spending early in retirement while delaying Social Security.

He argued that the 8 percent increase in benefits granted for each year of delaying Social Security past normal retirement age and until age 70 will guarantee a higher living standard in retirement.

Another counterintuitive bit of advice concerns who should hold stocks and at what stage in their lives.

Traditionally it was felt that those who are well-off can afford to hold more stocks because they can bear the risk. But Kotlikoff argued that those with modest assets can afford the risk more, because a larger part of their assets are fixed and guaranteed through Social Security and pensions.

The same goes for retirees: rather than reducing stockholdings in retirement, they are better able to own stocks because their Social Security benefits are akin to holding a fixed income investment that balances stock risk.

Pay off mortgages

Many homeowners like the deductions they get for mortgage interest. Kotlikoff, however, says most do not realize any real tax advantage for having a mortgage.

First, taxpayers who don’t itemize their deductions realize nothing. High income taxpayers lose the mortgage deduction due to deduction phase-outs.

One group does gain some benefit: those who can take all of the deduction and are thereby kept out of the Alternative Minimum Tax trap. Everyone else should consider paying off their mortgage, he says.

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