Baker Jensen Investment Advisors

BJIA Update
April 2009

Volume 14, Issue 4

Contents

What The Market Ralley Means
So, Have We Hit Bottom?
Guy's Commentary

Is it a ‘lost decade’ or a rosy future for stock investors?
Inflation, not volatility, is the big risk
Employer pension funds beat mutual funds by a wide margin
Global Stocks, Risk Tolerance, & More
Marketing may lead investors to make bad mutual fund choices
Articles from March 2009

Buffet's Idea Of What Is To Come       by Guy Baker


Those Who Try To Time The Stock Market Get Nipped By Black Swans
Family Wealth Is Down, Incomes Stagnate
Active Mutual Funds Do Not Protect Against A Bear Market
Young And Sick, Higher Incomes, And More
With Impeccable Bad Timing, Mutual Fund Investors Flee
Articles from February 2009
Stimulus? Hope Springs Eternal       by Guy Baker
Why intelligent people fell for Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme
DFA Market Review and New Fama/French Forum
More Proof Market Timing Doesn’t Work
Tough times may be here, but you can still improve your finances
If the experts cannot predict the markets, you can’t either

Marketing may lead investors to make bad mutual fund choices

If an investor was able to predict which mutual fund within a similar class of funds would perform the best, wouldn’t it be more likely he would invest in that fund? Pals

Not so, found a study of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index funds done by professors at New York University and Emory University.

It should be easy to distinguish the potential winners in the S&P 500 index funds category since they all invest in the same stocks held in the index.

The main determinant of success should be the cost of owning the funds, with the cheapest funds delivering the highest returns.

“They have substantial differences in fees and differences in return that should be economically significant to investors,” wrote Edwin J. Elton and Martin J. Gruber of NYU and Jeffrey A. Busse of Emory.

However, the worst-performing (and highest cost funds) delivered returns that were as much as 2.09 percentage points below the best funds, they found.

They examined the track records and cash flows of 52 S&P 500 funds from 1997 through 2001. They found, to their surprise, that the weakest S&P funds drew more money than they should have from investors, given their performance and fees.

“We would expect the investors who buy index funds to be among the most knowledgeable of all investors and to make the allocation among index funds to maximize their economic payoff. As we show, this is not the case,” the study said.

They theorize that payments made by fund companies to brokers who distribute their funds may be at the root of the problem.

“Thus, financial advisors or brokers who advise clients to purchase funds to improve their own profits could cause much of the flow into index funds,” they conclude.

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